China relents:
It seems, from the AP wire of October 29, just past, that China, or at least their ruling bureaucrats, have decided that enough is enough and they are going to abandon their much touted “one child policy.”
In fact, they do not expect a huge baby boom, because they’ve already tried it on a small scale. It didn’t work there, give or take 5%, and I’ll make a prediction for you. It won’t work now. Of course they would know, if they cared to do the study, what was going to happen within a couple or three months. But they do not suspect, even though I have written and told them as much, that birth rate depends entirely on kinship over multiple generations and not one iota, well not a detectable iota, on choice. The Danish study looked into it and found that once town size and distance between birthplaces of a couple were taken into account there was no effect at all of income or education on birth rate. If you can think of something other than income and education that goes into a decision, good for you. But legal requirements, even among the cooperative Chinese people under a very strict government, are not that thing.
The whole thing came as a surprise. Nobody expected such an abrupt and dramatic change. They recon they have prevented 400 million births. I say they have prevented none.
So let’s look at it in a year. Prod me if I forget. The second surprise will be when it doesn’t work. Yet all the sociologists are talking like they expect it to work in defiance of evidence.
In “Young Frankenstein” the old cop calms the people on a number of occasions saying, “A riot is an ugly thing.” But at evidence piles up as to just what is going on in Frankenstein’s castle, he eventually completes the sentence with, “But I think it’s time for a good old fashioned riot.” Panic is an ugly thing. But maybe now at last we’ll get the one we need.
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